Economists: Wichita could see recession until end of 2010

Last Update: 10/01/2009 5:27 pm

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Economists: Wichita could see recession until end of 2010

WICHITA, Kansas – It’s the economic forecast that attracted hundreds of area business leaders to Century II Thursday. Wichita State’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research unveiled its annual look ahead.

The first half of 2009 in Wichita was marked by massive layoffs and growing unemployment. And at Thursday’s economic outlook conference, the local forecast doesn’t promise a much better future with employment continuing to decline 1.7 percent for the rest of 2009 and then another 1.2 percent in 2010.

"We have a lag in this economy and this is definitely apparent so far,” said Jeremy Hill with Wichita State University. “We had a lag going into this recession and obviously 2008 was a positive year for us and in the nation it wasn't, so as we go into 2010 it will still be slowing.”

Hill predicts the manufacturing sector, mainly aircraft, will continue to lose jobs. Still, the bright spot will likely be the service industry with growth health care and hospitality. The government sector will also likely show growth as stimulus funds begin coming in.

As far as the housing market goes, Wichita State economists say there’s nothing right now that indicates next year will be significantly different than this year – for better or worse.

"What we've had is both buyers and sellers are staying out of the market, so it's a relatively balanced market even though it's a slow market and that may continue into the foreseeable future, but prices are still relatively stable,” said Stan Longhofer with Wichita State University.

And right now, stability may be the best we can hope for at least until the end of 2010 when economists say Wichita may see a turnaround.

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