Through data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from local and national government websites and WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is providing projections to help government leaders and public health professionals determine when they could shift using containment strategies (social distancing) to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 in their community.
IHME is providing initial estimates of when infections could drop to 1 per 1 million people. At that point, it may be possible to relax social distancing, if – and only if – widespread testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limitations on mass gathering are in place. The timeline could change based on what data shows on the trajectory of the pandemic.
See the Institute for Heath Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website for complete list of frequently asked questions.