WASHINGTON (NBC News) — As President Donald Trump travels to Michigan on Thursday to campaign for re-election, a new national poll shows that Americans are evenly split on who they think will win the presidency in 2020.
According to a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey online poll, conducted before the release of a four-page summary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, 43 percent of Americans think Trump will be re-elected and 43 percent believe the Democratic nominee will win. Nearly one in 10 Americans — 9 percent — believe a third-party candidate will win the presidency in 2020.
While the percentage of Americans who think a third-party candidate will win might seem high, historically the prospects of third-party candidates poll higher early in presidential cycles and among individuals who ultimately end up not voting.
Even though the next general election is still over a year and a half away, a sizable percentage of Americans say they already know who they plan to support, demonstrating the strength of partisanship in determining the preferences of voters for the presidency.
When asked who they would vote for, if the general election were held today, more than a third of respondents (34 percent) said Trump. Nearly three in 10 respondents (29 percent) said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, regardless of who the party nominates. Another 17 percent of Americans said that it depends on who the Democrats select as their nominee and nearly one in seven Americans (15 percent) said they don’t know.
Trump notches most of his early support from groups that have largely supported his presidency. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents, three-quarters (76 percent) said they would vote for the president.