WICHITA, Kan. (KSNW) — In the latest KSN News/Emerson College/The Hill poll, 50.4% of Kansans polled said they would vote for former President Donald Trump instead of President Joe Biden if the 2024 election were held today. Biden is 13.6 percentage points behind, with 36.8% of those polled saying they would vote for him.

The KSN News/Emerson College/The Hill poll was conducted last Thursday through Saturday, Oct. 27-29. The sample consisted of 1,000 very likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Question: In a hypothetical match-up, if the 2024 Presidential Election were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for at this time?

CandidateFrequencyPercent
Donald Trump50450.4
Joe Biden36836.8
Someone else999.9
Undecided292.9
Total1000100.0
Source: KSN News/Emerson College/The Hill poll

In 2020, 56.2% of Kansans voted for Trump, while 41.6% voted for Biden.

Next is a look at how the poll’s 2024 question looks when considering party registration.

Crosstabulation of questions: What is your party registration? + In a hypothetical match-up, if the 2024 Presidential Election were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for at this time?

Party registrationTrumpBidenSomeone elseUndecidedTotal
Democrat5.7%86.0%6.8%1.4%100.0
Republican78.7%11.1%8.0%2.2%100.0
Independent or other48.5%29.6%16.5%5.4%100.0
Source: KSN News/Emerson College/The Hill poll

The majority of both Republicans and independent voters in Kansas would vote for Trump. However, those polled showed they were less supportive of the candidates now than in 2020:

Question: Who did you vote for in the 2020 election?

CandidateFrequencyPercent
Donald Trump53853.8
Joe Biden39439.4
Someone else505.0
Did not vote181.8
Total1000100.0
Source: KSN News/Emerson College/The Hill poll

The poll also asked what people think about how Biden is doing as president.

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as president?

AnswerFrequencyPercent
Approve32932.9
Disapprove58758.7
Neutral/No opinion848.4
Total1000100.0
Source: KSN News/Emerson College/The Hill poll

Based in Boston, Emerson has a strong reputation for nonpartisan polling. Emerson claims a 93% accuracy rate following 54 polls across the country in the 2018 Midterm elections.