T.J.’s Forecast: Slim storm chances expected through tonight, a couple severe possible


A ridge of high pressure has kept our warming trend going as we’ve stepped through our Tuesday. It’s also become muggier due to our breeze from the SW, bringing up more moisture into the atmosphere.

A boundary is sinking southward and with the help of the daytime heating and more instability in the air, our storm chances have increased.

Activity will be isolated but we can’t rule out a couple of stronger to severe storms closer to the front. The best bet for seeing these will be in Northern Kansas and that is where we find a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

The primary concerns will be larger hail and damaging winds but the tornado threat isn’t 0. The threat for severe weather does extend farther south though with much of the viewing area in a Marginal Risk.

The atmosphere is capped and it’s rather strong so if that holds, most of the viewing area will remain dry.

We still can’t rule out a storm in the Wichita Metro through the overnight either but with the instability waning some, these storms look to be weaker. Another chance arrives tomorrow as an upper-level disturbance moves out of Colorado and into Kansas.

There also looks to be a dryline set up to our west and this will provide the lift to get a few storms going.

A couple of these could also turn strong to severe with gusty winds and hail being the primary concerns.

The latter half of the workweek looks much drier but we do remain steamy. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with upper 90s expected for some of us. The heat will be sticking around right into the weekend with a small chance of a storm expected to start the week of Independence Day.


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