Dry, mild, and breezy to start our Thursday. There’s still a very small chance of a random shower or rumble through sunrise but more sunshine is on the way once the sun is up. Temperatures will quickly warm back up too into the 80s and 90s.
By midday, winds will turn stronger and we could experience some gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. After 4pm there’s another chance of some spotty showers or storms in the Western part of the area. While these storms should stay below severe limits we have seen one turn severe over the past couple of days. Just something to keep in mind.
Any storms should weaken after dark while tracking east, closer to Northern Kansas. We’ll wake up to another mild and gusty start Friday morning.
The first part of the day should stay dry with a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will be slightly cooler but will still warm well into the 80s. Strong southerly flow has not only warmed us up but has also brought more moisture (humidity) into the area. The air is noticeably heavier and even humid during the warmest part of the day. This south flow is what’s priming our atmosphere and environment for strong to severe storms during the PM on Friday.
An approaching dryline from the west will be the trigger or spark. A corridor between Western and Central Kansas will hold the greatest risk of severe weather with all modes being possible. Large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes are all on the table. Storms could start to develop in Western Kansas early in the afternoon but look more likely by early evening.
Some storms will continue overnight and into early Saturday morning but should weaken by that time.
The atmosphere will attempt to reset itself, prompting another chance of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. All forms of severe will be possible again, mainly in portions of Central and Eastern Kansas.
Sunday won’t be as stormy despite a chance remaining in the forecast. By Monday we’ll really need to monitor river levels and potential flooding because more rounds of heavy rain are looking likely Monday and Tuesday.
More than several inches of rain is possible by the time we get through Tuesday. Some stronger storms could still be around too. The middle of the work week isn’t looking as active so hopefully we’ll get a bit of a break after Tuesday.