The first cold front of the week is slicing across the state. Many communities have felt the winds switch out of the north, a sign of being on the cooler side of this boundary.
Right now, we have a strengthening low pressure system that will interact with this cold front to spark widespread showers and storms heading into the overnight. A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of southwestern into northcentral Oklahoma to include Kay County until 10 PM tonight.
Oklahoma was upgraded to a Moderate Risk for severe weather where all hazards are likely, including tornadoes.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as far north as southcentral into southeastern Kansas tonight where a Marginal to Slight Risk has been highlighted for areas east of the Turnpike.
We have been watching a steady stream of light rain from southwest into northcentral and northeastern Kansas with an uptick in activity expected this evening.
Rainfall potential east of the Turnpike is about an inch to 2″ likely with locally higher amounts. Much less to the west.
A Flood Watch remains in effect for Elk and Chautauqua counties until 7 AM Monday.
Any leftover rain moves out early Monday.
Temperatures overnight dip into the 30s and 50s across Kansas.
Clouds will clear revealing a much cooler change than the record-breaking heat we had early in the weekend with highs back in the 70s for most.
Tuesday is another day we are watching for severe potential where all hazards, including tornadoes, are possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk over western and central Kansas.
Several severe thunderstorms will be possible within this sector. We have a strengthening storm system and a powerful cold front set to join forces to produce severe weather.
Models the last few days have been trending farther and farther west with initiation. Timing will be of importance as to how quickly during the day this gets going. Initiation too late may limit our severe potential.
However, the dynamics of the system may be able to override and keep severe storms going into the night, tracking from west to east across Kansas. We will need to watch this timing closely.
Storms will be discrete in the beginning where there is a greater tornado threat.
As the night marches on, storms will congeal into a line where damaging winds will be a higher priority.
The stronger second front of the week looks to take its time moving through completely this week, not until Thursday night, which will allow temps ahead of it to be comfortably warm in the 70s with the 60s behind it. There may be a shot for a few random showers to the southeast by Thursday, however most of the area will experience dry conditions the remainder of the work week. Next weekend also looks quiet at this point with more seasonable temperatures. The northwest corner may flirt with the upper 30s later this week, but it looks like we avoid frost/freeze headlines for now.
— Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman