A boundary has stalled across Kansas right now. Isolated storms have bubbled up as a result and will remain spotty through the evening. A stronger storm or two is possible to the northwest, capable of reaching severe thresholds. Brief downpours and frequent lightning are also expected.
The Storm Prediction Center has northern Kansas in a Marginal Risk for severe weather near and north of I-70. Nebraska stands the better shot for more widespread severe weather tonight.
We will watch for a complex of heavy rain and thunder to track out of Nebraska and slide to the southeast overnight and early Tuesday morning. The path of this complex will be interesting to note. It should clip our northcentral and far northeastern counties. That said, I could see this trying to build back towards central Kansas early Tuesday morning, aided by a strong outflow boundary.
More unsettled weather is possible Wednesday morning that could affect our far eastern counties.
Depending on how strong our ridge or area of high pressure is this week, the northern and western perimeter will be the zone for storm formation Thursday into Friday along with the weekend. This looks to align from western Kansas, arcing through the northern half of the state with Wichita remaining dry. A few of those storms could sneak south by Friday night.
Winds will favor a flow from the south which will keep us toasty during the work week. Highs parked in the 90s with the triple digits building by mid-week out west.
Late in the work week, depending on where the boundary sets up, will tell the tale of a difference in heat – those ahead of it will bake with those behind the boundary facing milder air.
We have a much stronger cold front that arrives after Labor Day early next week. If model guidance comes to fruition, we could be looking at overnight lows by the middle of next week in the 50s! It would be a refreshing change and on target with Meteorological Fall.
-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman