The heat and humidity make their presence known for our Tuesday. Winds out of the south are helping usher back those elements to the region. This is going to be a main factor in helping storms develop later on in the day.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an Enhanced Risk for severe weather just off to the northeast of the KSN viewing area, across northeastern Kansas. A Slight Risk (still a chance for a few isolated severe cells) includes central into northwestern Kansas.
Timing: An isolated cell or two will try to get going in the late afternoon, but it looks like a stronger cap aloft will inhibit that. It is not until we can cool our atmosphere down just a bit that storms will start to initiate, likely during the heart of the evening. Initially, a few supercells are possible, before later in the night a line of storms will move in.
Not everyone will see activity as this is going to be a spotty event. However, if you do have a storm come through your area, hail, damaging winds and even an isolated/brief tornado is possible.
The higher tornado risk will stay to our northeast.
Once the storms eventually clear overnight, we will have to watch for another wave on Wednesday. This seems to highlight more of southwest Kansas, where a marginal risk has been placed. Hail and damaging winds are both of concern.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s and 90s with a strong breeze out of the south.
We will see those temperatures accelerate even more on Wednesday and Thursday, before a beautiful cooldown is on the way for the weekend. We will have to watch for a few more storms to form Friday night into Saturday along the advancing cold front, but those details still need to be ironed out.
5/17/22 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Warren Sears:
Today: Mostly to partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 87 Wind: SE 10-20
Tonight: Partly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 66 Wind: SE/N 8-18
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 88 Wind: N/NE 8-18
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 64 Wind: NE 5-15
Thu: Hi: 92 Lo: 67 Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 80 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 70 Lo: 48 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 73 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy.
Mon: Hi: 68 Lo: 50 Partly cloudy.
Tue: Hi: 67 Lo: 50 Mostly to partly cloudy, breezy.
-Meteorologist Warren Sears