Much of the state is in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Thursday.  There will be two areas where storms have an easier time forming.  One to the northwest and the other south central around Wichita.  Heavy rain and frequent lightning accompany these storms but a strong one may produce larger hail and gusty winds.  

The southwest will struggle to see rain as the cap or lid over the atmosphere will hold thunderstorm formation back.  With sundown, much of this falls apart.  That said, as the low level jet kicks in, we should see another complex of rain and thunder blossom over central Kansas.  This tracks East by dawn.

The risk for severe weather Friday has been expanded with more counties in an Enhanced Risk, meaning numerous severe storms.  

We have a low tracking into Kansas and Nebraska.  Underneath this low by afternoon, storms will form. Some could be severe in northwest Kansas.  

Strong winds sustained from 20-30 with gusts to 50 will pump moisture north into the heart of this system.

High Wind Watches and Wind Advisories will go into effect Friday afternoon and linger into Saturday for some parts of the area.

The fire danger remains high west of I-135 behind the dryline. Temperatures also warm at the surface and aloft.  Fire Weather Warnings remain in effect.

This will hinder early storm development but as the atmosphere cools, severe thunderstorms will develop with the advancement of the cold front ahead of the dryline.  There will be a short window for supercells in north central Kansas that will quickly become linear and track to the east/southeast, possibly affecting Wichita, into the early overnight.

Friday is a Weather Aware Day where we need to have multiple ways of receiving warnings because all forms of severe weather are possible.  Damaging large hail to the size of baseballs possible along with a tornado or two.  As the storms congeal into a line, then the risk for damaging 70 MPH winds will be favorable.  A quick spin-up or QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out along this line similar to what we saw last week in Sharon Springs. 

This severe event ends by midnight and northern Kansas closer to the Kansas/Nebraska state line will receive leftover rain for part of Saturday.  Much of our weekend will be dry but another disturbance affects us late Sunday night into Monday.  We have enough instability to work with to produce a stronger storm or two Monday across southern Kansas.  Tuesday is a dry day before more rain returns next Wednesday.  Severe chances at this time look low.

KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Wichita:
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 63 Wind: SE 10-20
Tomorrow: Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 86 Wind: SE/S 15-30
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy, windy. 70% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 54 Wind: S/NW 10-25

Wichita Weekly
Sat: Hi: 72 Lo: 45 Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 74 Lo: 52 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, breezy.
Mon: Hi: 72 Lo: 49 Mostly cloudy, windy. 70% chance of showers and storms.
Tue: Hi: 73 Lo: 54 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Wed: Hi: 71 Lo: 49 Partly to mostly cloudy, windy. 50% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 70 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy, windy.

— Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman