There is a noticeable springlike feeling in the air today. Southerly winds overnight helped to transport more moisture our way, resulting in dew points in the 60s. This is focused from central into eastern Kansas and will play a role in our chances for a stronger storm or two tonight.
Winds are also ramping up ahead of the next cold front. Wildfires could grow rapidly, especially to the northwest here. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through early tonight. High fire danger will plague portions of the Plains this week as another Fire Weather Watch is in effect through Thursday to the northeast.
Storm initiation will occur after 8 p.m. Tuesday near the Kansas/Nebraska state line. Current thinking is near Phillips/Smith counties first. Farther south, additional storms may blossom ahead of the front across southwest Kansas, back toward Dodge City.
As the front comes through, it will have a broken line of storms that will track to the east/southeast overnight.
A few storms may reach severe thresholds for damaging 60 MPH winds and large quarter-size hail. This event will take place overnight while most are sleeping. Any leftovers should be well East of our viewing area by dawn Wednesday. This will be a quick shot as the front moves through tonight.
Temperatures are cut down Wednesday before another wind shift Wednesday night.
That next wind shift serves as a reinforcing shot of cooler air Thursday. Friday and Saturday temps bounce back to only get knocked down by the next cold front Saturday. Timing of this is important because an earlier arrival time could rob us from more of the afternoon heat and higher temps Saturday. Sunday, we cool again and remain near seasonable standards into early next week. Moisture may return to western Kansas Monday night into Tuesday.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of a shower or storm. Lo: 55 Wind: S/N 10-25
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny, breezy. 10% chance of a shower or storm. Hi: 77 Wind: NW 10-20
Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear. Lo: 46 Wind: NW 5-15
Thu: Hi: 75 Lo: 46 Mostly sunny, windy.
Fri: Hi: 80 Lo: 50 Mostly sunny.
Sat: Hi: 81 Lo: 48 Partly cloudy.
Sun: Hi: 71 Lo: 45 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Mon: Hi: 70 Lo: 46 Mostly sunny, breezy.
Tue: Hi: 70 Lo: 46 Mostly sunny.
— Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman