We have a risk for severe storms to the north and west this evening. While the tornado threat is on the table, it is low. We stand a better chance for large hail and damaging winds as storms keep churning in this part of our viewing area.
A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until midnight for a good chunk of the KSN viewing area for damaging winds and large hail.
Storms will cluster together into a complex of rain and thunder, tracking east across northern Kansas overnight. A southern extension to this branch will inch closer to Wichita by dawn Monday morning and keep tracking east/southeast.
Another round of showers and storms will develop Monday afternoon with the strongest expected to affect southeast Kansas where all forms of severe weather are possible.
Main severe weather impacts should align just outside of our viewing area near Pittsburg through the Joplin/Springfield areas. Any leftovers will wrap up early Tuesday.
More unsettled conditions with showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday with another batch of moisture Friday into Saturday. Instability looks rather weak with the Wednesday system but increases by the weekend.
We will need to watch how far to the east the latter system will progress or if it decides to slow down. If this slows down, then it could bring a greater chance for stronger storms east of I-135 to the Kansas/Missouri state line.
With the cold front coming through, we will see an early work week drop in temperatures with highs primarily in the 50s and 60s.
With the progressive pattern in place, it will be hard for us to warm up until week’s end and the following weekend. We will have some chilly overnights, especially up north, where lows at times may dip into the upper 30s with another cold frontal passage by Thursday morning. Wichita will not get that chilly, but we will see several nights this week in the 40s.
–Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman