Waking up this morning with breezy south winds, some low clouds and humidity, and temperatures hovering the upper 60s to low 70s. Into the afternoon, we will see a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures pushing toward the middle and upper 80s.
A cold front will make an advance across the state today, eventually stalling near the Kansas Turnpike. This front will serve as the focus for storm development later in the day. The first storms develop around midday and begin moving east, though these may struggle against the cap for the first few hours.
Storms will quickly become severe and will carry the threat of all hazards including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a few tornadoes. An Enhanced Risk covers southeastern Kansas today, with the highest threat just to the east of Wichita.
With the front stalled out and continued favorable winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere, several rounds of storms may develop off the front and move over the same areas through the evening. It will be a stormy evening for southeastern Kansas.
Rainfall amounts could be locally very heavy, especially if the first round of storm development manages to take root. Anywhere from 1 to 3 inches will be possible, with locally heavier totals especially toward far southeastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.
The front will push east tonight and brings the storm threat to an end for the KSN viewing area by sundown. Overnight temperatures will be a little cooler in the 50s and lower 60s.
A few passing light showers move through southwestern Kansas overnight, but little accumulation is expected and these will be gone around sunrise. A bit of light shower activity may hang around south-central Kansas through late morning.
Temperatures tomorrow will be near average in the 80s with light northwest winds.
Upper level high pressure will build in behind this storm system, and that will keep things on the dry and warm side through the first half of the week.
A few isolated storms may begin to come back as a bit more moisture enters the picture later in the week, but chances remain low as no significant storm systems will move our way for the next seven days or so.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Today: Partly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 87 Wind: SE/NW 10-20
Tonight: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 62 Wind: NW/NE 5-15
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Hi: 84 Wind: N 5-15
Tomorrow night: Mostly clear. Lo: 59 Wind: NE 5-15
Mon: Hi: 86 Lo: 59 Mostly sunny.
Tue: Hi: 87 Lo: 60 Mostly sunny.
Wed: Hi: 86 Lo: 60 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 84 Lo: 59 Mostly sunny.
Fri: Hi: 85 Lo: 59 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 86 Lo: 61 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.