Clouds have been building and storms developing across western Kansas this afternoon and evening. As storms develop, they continue to enter into a favorable environment for rapid growth through northcentral Kansas.
An Enhanced Risk has been highlighted for northeastern Kansas. All severe weather threats are on the table.
Isolated storms that initially form in western Kansas will be capable of producing the larger hail to the size of 2″ in diameter, which can be compared to an egg or lime in size, along with gusty winds. Discrete storms that develop could pose the tornado threat as well as they drift closer to northcentral Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9PM.
A Tornado Watch has also been issued for portions of northcentral into northeastern Kansas until 1AM Sunday.
An area of low pressure will be trekking across the state with a warm front draped over northern Kansas, a cold front trailing behind, and a dryline across southwestern Kansas to help spark storms initially. These boundaries will act as a focus for showers and storms through the rest of this evening into the afternoon.
As the evening goes on, storms will cluster together as they slide east through the overnight.
Damaging winds then become possible for northeastern Kansas into central Missouri.
Areas farther to the south will have more working against thunderstorm development, but we will need to monitor trends through the evening to see if storms try to work in a southerly direction tonight.
High Wind Warnings to the west and Wind Advisories to the east remain in place tonight through Sunday.
Winds could gust upwards of 45 mph throughout the day on Sunday across central Kansas.
As the storms clear to the east overnight, a cold front will sweep through the state helping to drop temperatures into the second half of the weekend. Lows tonight will dip into the 40s and 50s.
Highs Sunday will be cooler under a gusty north wind. Afternoon temperatures will make it into the 50s and 60s.
Some scattered showers may redevelop in western Kansas for Mother’s Day, but more widespread rain looks to hold off until Sunday night into Monday.
Rain becomes more widespread on Monday as our next impulse swings through the state.
Monday night into Tuesday, far northwestern Kansas may see some snow trying to mix in with the rain near the Kansas/Colorado state line as temperatures drop closer to freezing, but accumulations are not expected. Instead, we carry a chilly rain into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures behind the cold front will fall into the 50s and 60s for daytime highs as the rain and cloud cover helps to limit heating throughout the afternoons. By Thursday and Friday, more sunshine starts to break through, and temperatures rebound to more seasonable levels (mid 70s) for this time of year.
— Meteorologist Erika Paige