Stay weather aware tonight! Areas of central and western Kansas are highlighted in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather where all forms of severe weather are possible, including isolated tornadoes. As much of this will happen after dark, we should strongly encourage you to have multiple ways of getting warnings while sleeping, like the KSN Storm Track 3 weather app.
The dryline will play a crucial role today as to how far East it goes and where storms form. The window for severe storm development is generally from 7 PM to midnight, but storms to the southwest might initiate sooner. Anywhere from near Dodge City to Hill City and up to Furnas County, Nebraska, are great spots for storms to form first.
Once these storms go, they will travel fast. Initially, any discrete cell will be capable of large hail and an isolated tornado.
As we step through the evening, storms will form into a line.
The tornadic threat will then become similar to what we had last week where embedded vortices along this line may produce QLCS-type tornadoes that are weak and relatively short-lived.
Damaging winds of 60-70 MPH will be an increasing concern at this time.
Storms will track quickly to the east and be closer to the I-135 corridor shortly after midnight. By this time, we will see this severe weather event morph into a complex of heavy rain and thunder. The tornado and large hail threats will drop, but gusty winds will remain.
Outside of any storm and even behind the approaching cold front, winds will be strong. Gusts from 40-50 MPH, if not stronger, are on the table the next couple of days before quieting down Friday.
Temperatures will also take a more seasonable turn the remainder of the work week.
We are dry this weekend and feeling fall-like. A much stronger cold front comes in Halloween night into the start of November.
We could be looking at a killing freeze for much of the state. This transition might also come with moisture. Rain to the east but near the Kansas/Colorado state line, the first flakes of the season may indeed fall early next week.
-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman