Our severe weather threat is still in store as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. A few scattered showers and storms are out there ahead of the approaching storm system. This will not be the main event, but a few storms could become stronger. Already in western Kansas, a tornado watch has been issued. See the current weather alerts and radars here.
As we head into the afternoon, a brief uptick in moisture will be key, allowing for the formation of strong to severe storms. The timing for this looks to be after 4 PM in western Kansas ahead of an approaching front.
An Enhanced Risk is present for a good portion of central and western Kansas. The slight risk extends farther east almost to Kansas City. Parts of southwest Kansas could be upgraded to a Moderate risk.
All storm threats are possible, including large hail, strong winds and even a few tornadoes.
The tornado threat for southwestern Kansas has increased. We are concerned with points from Dodge City to Pratt, Medicine Lodge to Great Bend. This is where the greatest moisture content will reside. The tornado threat exists especially around sunset and just after. We will still keep a lower tornado threat into the overnight hours as the storms form a line and march east.
I think as the line of storms does march east, it will turn into more of a straight line wind event.
This is going to be a powerful setup that should stay strong well into early Wednesday morning before it moves out. The strongest of the activity should reach the Wichita area after midnight.
Once this storm system departs, we are left with a nice stretch of fall-like air. A few areas in northwest Kansas will see lows in the 30s this week.
-Meteorologist Warren Sears