Storm Track 3 Forecast: Severe weather setup for Tuesday, all storm threats possible

Kansas and Wichita Weather Forecasts by Storm Track 3

The storm system that produced heavy rainfall for portions of our viewing area and tornadoes down in Oklahoma is departing. 

Winds have switched out of the northwest, allowing a more refreshing feel to spread throughout the Sunflower State.  Overnight it will be comfortably cool before we engage with a stronger storm system, capable of severe weather Tuesday. 

Clouds will start to build our way from the south tonight.  Surface winds will also return from the south later today and pick up speed Tuesday which will begin the march of moisture in our direction.

An Enhanced Risk is positioned over western and central Kansas, this now includes the Wichita area. 

There is also a 5% tornado risk for this area, which also includes the Wichita Metro. 

All forms of severe weather are possible as this storm system ramps up. 

There will be a preliminary strike of showers through central Kansas late morning into the lunch hour Tuesday.  This is not the main show. 

After 4 PM, we will see strengthening storms out west ahead of the dryline, East of the Kansas/Colorado state line.  This activity will track to the east into the early evening. 

There will be a few embedded supercells where large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 

Higher levels of moisture will feed into southern Kansas, basically from Wichita west to Dodge City and points south.  Even then, dew points are only in the lower to middle 60s which is not terribly high for severe storms.  Oklahoma will have the richer moisture with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 

These storms will congeal into a line of damaging winds by 10 PM that will work closer to the Wichita area by midnight.  Any storms will be long gone by dawn Wednesday.   

Temps out west Wednesday morning will drop to the upper 30s.  Milder air will prevail during the afternoons with highs in the 60s and 70s.  Looks like a push of slightly cooler air for Friday before moderating temperatures over the weekend.  There is a slim shot for showers from central into eastern Kansas Thursday.  Once this passes, we will be dry over the weekend.

-Meteorologist Warren Sears

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