We can feel the humidity as southerly winds pump it into a dynamic system today.  Pressure has dropped as the low tracks east through the Plains with an apparent dryline taking shape in central Kansas.  As this slides to the east later today, it will continue to be the dividing line for catastrophic fire conditions to the west and severe storms to the east.

Fire Weather Warnings are in place west of I-135.  This aligns with where the dryline will hold this evening.  

Relative humidity values are bone dry behind this boundary.  Winds will amp up and may gust as high as 70 MPH!  Any fire that starts will be hard to contain and spread rapidly.  There will also be a wind shift to keep in mind for firefighters as the cold front overtakes the dryline later tonight.

As for the severe storm threat, there are still two options on the table for this evening and the early overnight.  The first is highly conditional and will only occur IF the cap breaks.  Temperatures ahead of the front are warm and have topped out in the 80s with some 90s in the core of central Kansas.  We are warm not only at the surface, but also aloft.  This warming higher in the atmosphere suppresses storm formation. IF we can overcome that cap and break it closer to sundown, then all forms of severe weather are possible. This activity will be isolated.  

We have all the ingredients available for large hail (tennis ball size) with incredible tornado parameters but we have the cap keeping the atmosphere in check.  We have a Slight Risk for central into eastern Kansas with the Enhanced to Moderate Risk to our northeast, closer to the eastward tracking surface low.  

What happens in southeast Nebraska this evening will then build back into northeast and north central Kansas as the front advances for the second option for severe weather.  This happens after dark with an increasing concern for damaging winds as this line of storms tracks through our area.  An isolated quick spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out after dark.  

A couple hours after midnight, any window for severe weather closes and the limited rain impacting our viewing area will be gone.  

Temperatures cool Wednesday but there is enough wind to keep the fire threat elevated to the west.  

A system may bring a shower farther southeast Friday, but I am not holding my breath at this point.  There are some hints of a disturbance Sunday for rain farther east but we may have to wait until next Tuesday into Wednesday for active weather to return.

KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy. 50% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 45 Wind: S/NW 15-30
Tomorrow: Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers. Hi: 58 Wind: NW 10-25
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear, windy. Lo: 27 Wind: NW/W 5-15

Wichita Weekly
Thu: Hi: 65 Lo: 44 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, breezy.
Fri: Hi: 68 Lo: 36 Partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of showers.
Sat: Hi: 65 Lo: 38 Partly cloudy, breezy.  
Sun: Hi: 68 Lo: 42 Partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of showers.
Mon: Hi: 65 Lo: 40 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Tue: Hi: 68 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy, windy.

-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman