Early morning thunderstorms have formed along an approaching cold front. Most of the activity is confined to far north central Kansas, but a few pop-ups have formed across southwest Kansas as well. None of the morning activity is severe, but frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours are all likely.
An Areal Flood Warning is issued for Russell and Lincoln counties until 12:15 PM where creeks streams and rivers could be running high.
Coverage could become a bit more widespread as the morning progresses and model guidance suggests.
Million dollar question is whether or not storms can become widespread enough, and last long enough, to make it to south central Kansas. Nonetheless, slim storm chances will be kept through Sunday for most of the state, but I think the Wichita area could stay dry.
Highs on Sunday will be slightly cooler thanks to this weak front passing through and some cloud coverage from area storms. Generally, expect lower 90s with a few mid 90s sprinkled in. Those in northwest Kansas are the outliers as temperatures should remain in the 80s out that way.
The general pattern keeps us in the lower 90s for Sunday and Monday with mid 90s quickly returning. I am seeing signs of those mid 90s lingering well into next weekend.
Overall, this is a dry forecast once we get through Sunday and Monday. Another slight chance for a stray storm or two comes on Monday, but coverage looks better off to the east toward KC and southeast Kansas.
Later in the day a small complex of storms could bubble up out across far northwest Kansas. There is a marginal risk for severe weather mainly in far north central and northeast Kansas for Monday as well.
High pressure and sunshine return midweek. – Meteorologist Warren Sears