We are keeping a close eye on the severe potential into this evening. An Enhanced Risk has been included for portions of south-central through northeastern Kansas. The timing looks to be between 5 and 7 PM this evening for storm initiation.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of central into eastern Kansas until 1AM Tuesday.
Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon as a cold front closes in on the region. This continues to pull moisture in from the south across central into eastern Kansas. With a dryline to the west and temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere starting to cool closer to sunset, we have seen the development of isolated storms. These storms will be supercells capable of producing large hail, an isolated tornado and damaging wind gusts.
Eventually we will see a line of storms develop into a complex out ahead of the cold front slowly continuing to push to the south. Storms overnight will pose a severe potential as well, with damaging winds being our primary concern, but large hail and an embedded isolated tornado not ruled out.
With the cold front nearby and upper-level energy to support storm chances, a severe risk remains Tuesday across southeastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. The tornado potential will be lower Tuesday, but not zero. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Enhanced Risk for parts of the area Tuesday.
The key will be to see how far south the cold front can push Tuesday into Wednesday. An isolated severe potential remains possible to the south where a Marginal Risk has been highlighted.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms look likely through the middle of the week.
Multiple rounds of activity passing over the same areas will support the potential for flooding concerns across southern Kansas. With a saturated ground and swollen rivers across south-central Kansas from recent storms, it would not take much rain to see flooding become an issue in this part of the state. We will continue to keep a close eye on the placement of this front.
Once the front clears to the south Thursday, temperatures will start to warm into the 70s and 80s by the weekend. An unsettled pattern will keep daily opportunities at finding showers and storms in the forecast.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Erika Paige:
Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 68 Wind: S 10-25
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 80 Wind: S/N 10-20
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 62 Wind: N/NE 5-15
Wed: Hi: 66 Lo: 57 Mostly cloudy. 70% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 73 Lo: 54 Mostly to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 77 Lo: 62 Partly cloudy.
Sat: Hi: 80 Lo: 65 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 84 Lo: 67 Mostly to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Mon: Hi: 84 Lo: 66 Partly cloudy, 10% chance of showers and storms.
— Meteorologist Erika Paige