Summer-like weather holds strong as we wrap up the official summer season. Fall officially starts Wednesday. We can expect a fairly comfortable morning eventually turning hot by the afternoon. Widespread low to mid 90s are expected across the state. Our average high for this time of year in Wichita is 82 degrees, and we will soar above that.
Strong sunshine continues for most, but those in southwest Kansas will have to watch for a few thunderstorms by the afternoon. Coverage looks to be isolated, and storms should stay mostly sub-severe. Due to a lack of an overall pattern, a few storms could bubble up and remain rather stationary, so if you see one, some very heavy rainfall is possible.
A few showers and storms could carry us into the late evening and overnight hours, this time farther east across central and south central Kansas. Activity remains spotty, but Wichita could get in on a little rainfall early Monday morning as the low level jet ramps up and moisture inflow increases. Again, storms do not look severe and only a select few will receive rain.
The biggest feature in this forecast is the strong cold front that starts to move into the state on Monday morning. From northwest to southeast, this frontal boundary will usher in cool and comfortable air. It will likely hold off to reach the Wichita area until late Monday.
A few storms could fire on that front Monday evening, and it looks like the best chance remains around southeast Kansas.
A marginal risk for severe weather is painted in this area. Hail and damaging wind are the main concerns with any storm that becomes strong.
Temperatures should stay in the upper 70s on Tuesday before lower 80s set back in as we head into next weekend. Sunshine and quiet skies look to take over as well.
-Meteorologist Warren Sears