This is May and the humidity cannot be kept down low for long. It has returned, pushing dew points back into the 60s and even near 70 closer to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line making it feel muggier. Most of the state is under the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. There is an Enhanced Risk for parts of central into northeast Kansas which includes many of our northern KSN counties. There is a large swath under a Slight Risk with any remaining counties under a General to Marginal Risk for severe weather.
All forms of severe weather are in the table this evening and into the overnight.
We need to watch for damaging winds and large hail.
The section in the Enhanced Risk is where the max for concentrated severe weather is to occur along with an isolated potential for tornadoes.
Storms continue to evolve into a cluster of heavy rain and thunder as more storms blossom near and north of I-70, tracking to the east/southeast into the early hours of Wednesday. At the same time, an isolated severe storm is possible across southern Kansas that may impact areas from Dodge City to Wichita. The severe storm threat may linger well into the overnight.
The next wave of storms arrives Wednesday evening and looks to affect southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Strong winds and large hail are possible.
Highs keep going up through Thursday before a cold front comes in Friday. This will trigger around wave of storms, some will be strong to severe, ahead of the cold front.
Model guidance is flirting with temperatures cold enough to produce snow to the west with this cold frontal push Friday night into early Saturday morning. More than likely a cold rain but a few flakes may mix in as the remnants of this moisture track to the east across northern Kansas. Leftover moisture may linger early Saturday farther south with a transition to a comfortably cool and pleasant weekend.
Highs mainly in the 70s with 60s cannot be beat for a weekend in May. If clouds linger longer Saturday, we may be stuck in the 40s and 50s for highs! Plus, overnight lows look crisp in the 40s and 50s with the upper 30s showing up to the northwest. Widespread rain looks likely next Monday.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:
Tonight: Partly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 67 Wind: SE/N 8-18
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 87 Wind: N/NE 8-18
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 64 Wind: NE/SE 5-15
Thu: Hi: 92 Lo: 64 Partly cloudy, windy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 80 Lo: 47 Partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 67 Lo: 44 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of rain.
Sun: Hi: 73 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy.
Mon: Hi: 70 Lo: 50 Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms.
Tue: Hi: 75 Lo: 50 Mostly to partly cloudy, breezy.
-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman