The weather pattern remains the same as it has been for several days. Warm temperatures with daily pop-up storms, especially over western Kansas, where severe storms continue to be a threat. We have a quiet midday going, with most areas seeing sunshine and temperatures in the 70s.
Much of this Tuesday afternoon will be quiet across the bulk of the area, with just a small chance for a hit-and-miss pop-up thunderstorm later on during the peak heating of the day.
High temperatures will be a few degrees above the average for the end of May, reaching the middle to upper 80s.
A boundary continues to hang around the Colorado/Kansas state line, and that will continue to be the focus for late-day and evening thunderstorms. Some of the storms are expected to be strong to severe, with the threat for damaging winds and large hail. Since these storms will be slow-moving, they will also bring the threat for heavy rain and flooding in some areas, especially in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska, where excessive rainfall has occurred during recent days.
We have a blocking pattern persisting across the country which is why most of the storms have been occurring in the western part of Kansas, closer to the large upper-level trough or dip in the jet stream in the western US. The activity has remained hit-and-miss in the central and eastern parts of Kansas, closer to the large blocking ridge over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
The block top our east is expected to weaken during the rest of the week, allowing the upper-level trough over the western US to inch eastward, increasing storm chance farther east across central and eastern Kansas, especially by Thursday and Friday.
In the meantime, Wednesday will become quite active again from eastern Colorado into western Kansas, with the possibility for damaging winds, large hail, localized flooding rains and even a tornado or two.
Thursday and Friday look even more active, with thunderstorms spreading farther east across central and eastern portions of the state.
Temperatures are expected to remain Summerlike through the end of the week, with more hit-and-miss thunderstorm chances through the weekend, along with slightly lower temperatures.
5/30/23 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Boston:
This afternoon: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 86 Wind: SE 8-18
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 62 Wind: SE 5-15
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, breezy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 85 Wind: SE 10-20
Tomorrow Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 66 Wind: SE 8-18
Thu: Hi: 83 Lo: 64 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 40% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 82 Lo: 64 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 40% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 80 Lo: 62 Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 84 Lo: 63 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Mon: Hi: 85 Lo: 63 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Tue: Hi: 84 Lo: 63 Partly cloudy, breezy.
–Meteorologist Jack Boston