Warm and mostly—but not completely—dry is the name of the game for your Memorial Day weekend! Starting out this Saturday with mildly cool temps in the 50s and 60s, we will warm quickly through the day.
Highs in Wichita top out in the low to middle 80s with somewhat cooler highs across western Kansas on account of denser cloudcover farther west.
We’ll stay mostly dry through midday but once we get into the peak afternoon heat, more storms are expected to bubble up especially across western Kansas.
Some of these storms will be able to push severe thresholds for large hail and strong wind gusts, and a Marginal Risk is in effect for western Kansas this afternoon. Slow storm motions and high rainfall rates may lead to more isolated flash flooding. Rain will be hit and miss with some seeing a deluge and others not getting a drop.
Tonight temps cool to the upper 50s and low 60s.
Sunday looks like much the same story, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
A subtle disturbance in the upper atmosphere will push toward western Kansas tomorrow and this may provide just a bit of extra support for storm development tomorrow, with somewhat higher storm coverage possible.
Showers and storms develop again in western Kansas tomorrow afternoon.
With just a bit of additional wind shear, we increase our severe weather threat to a Slight Risk in western Kansas for Sunday with hail and wind the primary concerns, but a tornado or two is not out of the question.
The coming week will see largely the same forecast day in and day out. Warm, slightly above average, with a plume of moisture from the Gulf in place to provide storm chances every day.
Storms will be most likely out west each day, and we will keep this trend going into the rest of the week as our upper air pattern will remain fairly stagnant. The best hope for storms in Wichita would be from any weak upper level disturbances that may try to push in our direction, but these will be few and far in between.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Today: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 83 Wind: SE 8-18
Tonight: Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 61 Wind: SE 5-15
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 82 Wind: SE 8-18
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 62 Wind: SE 5-15
Mon: Hi: 83 Lo: 63 Partly cloudy, breezy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Tue: Hi: 83 Lo: 63 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Wed: Hi: 85 Lo: 64 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Thu: Hi: 85 Lo: 65 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Fri: Hi: 84 Lo: 64 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 83 Lo: 62 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.