You might want to make some plans outside today if you don’t live in northwest Kansas because we are going to have a mighty fine day across most of the state! Highs in the 60s and 70s with mostly sunny skies. A stationary front is draped across central Kansas, and temperatures feel a lot more like winter to the north of the boundary.
The front will retreat to the north as a warm front tonight as south winds increase, which will bring humid air and increased cloud cover to southern Kansas tomorrow morning. Overnight lows will be mild south of the warm front.
The dry line will set up across central Kansas tomorrow during the afternoon and may try to serve as a trigger for a few thunderstorms in the afternoon as the moisture arrives. The atmosphere will be capped, so storms will struggle to form, if they manage to form at all. The most likely time for storms to form would be in the early evening.
If a storm manages to make it through and develops, conditions are favorable for it to become strong to severe, with all hazards possible, including the threat of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.
In addition to the threat of a few isolated severe thunderstorms, a much more certain threat tomorrow will be high fire danger, especially for areas behind the dry line, where strong winds and low humidity over drought-stricken regions are expected. Fire Weather Warnings for southwest Kansas have already been issued for tomorrow.
Highs tomorrow will be warm across the state, with widespread 70s. Just expect those winds to be quite strong!
The severe weather threat shifts east to the Mississippi Valley and leaves us breezy for Friday, with a cold front swinging in to deliver a cooldown for the weekend. This cooldown will be short-lived, with 70s returning by Sunday and some 80s possible around Monday of next week!
Our next opportunity for moisture looks to arrive around Tuesday or Wednesday, with dry conditions remaining through the weekend. Another cooldown comes in by the middle of next week.
3/29/23 KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Jack Maney:
Today: Mostly sunny, breezy. Hi: 67 Wind: S 10-20
Tonight: Partly cloudy, breezy. Lo: 49 Wind: SE 10-20
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hi: 72 Wind: S 15-30
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy, windy. 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lo: 59 Wind: S 15-30
Fri: Hi: 73 Lo: 35 Mostly to partly cloudy, windy. 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sat: Hi: 63 Lo: 40 Partly cloudy, breezy.
Sun: Hi: 75 Lo: 53 Partly cloudy, windy.
Mon: Hi: 80 Lo: 52 Partly cloudy, windy.
Tue: Hi: 78 Lo: 48 Partly cloudy, windy.
Wed: Hi: 69 Lo: 45 Partly cloudy, windy.
–Meteorologist Jack Maney