Storm Track 3 Forecast: Work week starts hot, turns cooler with rain possible

Kansas and Wichita Weather Forecasts by Storm Track 3

Southwesterly winds kicked high into gear as a warm front lifted across the state today  This gave us a summer turn to our temperatures to end the weekend and begin the work week in the 90s. 

Red Flag Warnings are in effect for a sliver of counties across central and southwest Kansas down south into Oklahoma.  Wildfires are a concern through early evening as conditions are dry, it is windy and warm.  

Winds are gusty and will remain elevated through sundown Monday.  Today gusts between 35 and 45 MPH were common. 

It will still be gusty Monday, but not as strong as today.  Skies are clear for now, but we will see a general increase in cloud cover beginning in the southwest first later tonight.

These clouds are the prelude to an unsettled stretch this week.  Monday and Tuesday evenings, a stray shower or two is possible to the west. 

Coverage is spotty at best.  As the main portion of the storm system approaches our region, we will see clouds work through the area mixed with sunshine.  Temperatures will come down a hair Tuesday, but it will still be unseasonably warm.

A stronger piece of energy will increase our chances for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Central and eastern communities should be able to partake in more moisture than points farther west.  The southwest corner may get robbed of the higher rainfall potential. 

As the storm ejects into the Central High Plains, we will see a much better shot for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into early Thursday morning.  Once again, southwestern counties may see the least, but it depends on the system’s track. 

We could be looking at 1″ to 2″ of rainfall potential, possibly more, for central counties.  Not much to write home about to the southwest with a quarter to a half inch to the northwest, but this is all track dependent.  

Cooler air will work in behind this system as our winds switch from the northwest, dropping temperatures Wednesday night to the northwest in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  This will be a domino effect and lower our daytime highs to the refreshing 60s and 70s Thursday.  Remaining cloud cover will also play into this cooling process. 

This temperature drop will carry over the remainder of the work week and next weekend with a mix of sun and clouds.  One of the questions in looking at model guidance is how progressive this late-week cold front will be for us.  If it is progressive, then it will push our rain chances aside to the east.  If it locks up, then our rain chances may linger into next weekend.  Something to watch closely.

–Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman

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