A front is sitting to the west of the KSN Viewing Area which will keep the threat for storms around as we progress through the rest of our Saturday.
Moisture and instability are in place ahead of this boundary but we have had a lid on our atmosphere. This means we have a layer of warmer air higher up in the sky preventing those clouds to rise and turn into storms.
That cap is breaking in Northwestern Kansas where a Tornado Watch has been issued until 11 PM. This area will need to be watched closely early this evening.
A Severe T-Storm Watch has been issued farther south though, which does include Beaver Co. Oklahoma. Ingredients for severe weather are a bit more favorable down that way due to that lid eroding.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the evening due to all of the energy in place. We have a Marginal Risk as a result of one or two storms including gusty winds and larger hail.
A dryline is also parked to the west of us which will try and ignite storms this evening. Overall, I don’t think we’ll see too much through the Sunflower State with just a slim chance through the overnight.
Lows will be mild and we’ll have higher dewpoints keeping that muggy feel around into early Sunday. The storm chances aren’t going anywhere tomorrow as this cold front stay situated across the state.
A better bet for storms arrives late Sunday as this boundary tracks eastward.
Some of these could also be on the strong to the severe side which is why many of us are under a Slight Risk. Hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns.
Highs will be in the 80s for many of us, which will help fuel thunderstorm development. Instability isn’t looking as great for Memorial Day but more widespread moisture is expected. We could still see a few embedded storms but these are not expected to be severe.
We then shift our concern to flooding as this unsettled pattern continues. This storm system looks to become cut-off from the flow just to the east of us.
This keeps our rain chance around through the final week of May.
Have a great night!