T.J.’s Forecast: Heavy rain in store into early Monday, snow still expected out west

Weather Blog

An area of low pressure has been developing to our west and it’s now intensifying and moving into Kansas. This will bring widespread rain to the region with some snow in on tap in Western Kansas.

Moisture will continue to move up from the south as this storm system moves through with heavier rain expected through the overnight hours.

An Areal Flood Watch has been issued as a result, meaning low lying areas could experience flooding as well as fields and streams.

There is still the chance to see a rogue stronger storm this evening in SW Kansas. This is where the best lift will be, near that center of circulation Small hail and some brief gusty winds would be the primary concerns.

Lows will bottom out in the 20s in western communities compared to the 40s in Wichita. Through the overnight, the rain will fall heavy at times with a few claps of thunder possible. This is thanks to a bit of instability in the atmosphere.

The best bet for snow will be in our western communities as colder air moves southward and what we call dynamic cooling takes place. The harder the precip. falls, the quicker we can subtract the heat from the atmosphere which means a quicker change to snow.

With all of the moisture pumping in from the south, we could have some minor flooding as rainfall amounts could exceed 1.5″. Low lying areas prone areas will likely have to deal with some minor flooding as there could be isolated spots that see near 2″.

A few snowflakes may mix in on Monday morning in Central Kansas as this system pulls off to the northeast.

Total snowfall will be the heaviest in the western half of the state with a trace-2″ still possible. The highest amounts will likely be right along the Colorado-Kansas line.

Highs on Monday will be seasonable for this time of the year but northerly winds will continue to drag cooler air southward through the day.

Monday night will be much cooler with lows in the 20s and 30s. Another disturbance looks to bring more rain/snow on Tuesday. This one has the potential to produce minor accumulations across much of the viewing area.

The majority of the state could see a trace-1″ but a heavier band may develop in Central Kansas producing some heavier snow.

Below average conditions will hold through mid-week southerly winds take over by Thursday. This will bring us back up toward seasonable levels by late in the week with highs climbing back into the 50s. A slim chance of rain is expected Friday thanks to a piece of upper-level energy that sinks southward through Kansas. On the backside of that, even warmer temperatures are on the docket. Next weekend will feature more sunshine with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s.

Have a great night!

-T.J.

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