The winter storm that we have been talking about over the last few days is moving in and conditions across the region will continue to deteriorate throughout the rest of our Sunday and into the overnight.
Temps will be nearly steady and eventually fall into the evening hours with readings in the 20s and 30s likely by sunset. Northerly winds will continue to take over and usher in much colder air through the overnight with lows dipping into the teens, 20s, and 30s.
The bigger story is the appreciable snowfall coming with the storm system. Moderate to possibly heavy snow will track southeastward through tonight, with snow developing first in our northwestern communities first.
Any rain/wintry mix will likely transition to mainly snow and sleet tonight and into early Monday. Our Monday AM commute could be quite nasty so make sure you are prepared. Slowdowns and snow/ice-covered roads are likely.
Some intense banding looks to develop in and around Central Kansas thanks to what we call frontogenisis. When two different air masses come together at the right point and time, we can see heavier precip. and this looks to occur early Monday. This could enhance some snowfall accumulation in Southcentral Kansas leading to heavier snow. Highs will support the accumulation of whatever is falling because temps will be stuck in the teens and 20s for many of us.
Precipitation mainly in the form of snow or a mixed bag will continue through the majority of Monday before moisture tapers some during the later evening and into the overnight.
The upper-level part of this wave then moves in by early Tuesday. The second round because of warmer air aloft will most likely come in the form of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
Just freezing rain is possible for much of Southcentral and Southeastern Kansas which could lead to significant icing.
Temps will struggle to get to freezing once again making for treacherous travel. In terms of snowfall accumulation through early Tuesday, we are looking at a widespread 3-5″ throughout the viewing area. Depending on where these heavier snow bands set up, we could see locally higher amounts. 1-3″ on tap for the Wichita Metro with just a trace-1″ farther southeast.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued and are in effect through Monday morning in Western Kansas and into Tuesday in Central Kansas. Winter Storm Watches are in play across our Oklahoma communities.
This system does not actually lift out of the region until late Wednesday into Thursday. Parts of Southwest Kansas could actually get more wintry weather Wednesday depending on how cold temperatures stay. The bulk of the area with see just plain rain but it wil be focused on the southern half of the viewing area. Rain will linger through a good chunk of Thursday before clearing the area. A nice warming trend takes hold Friday through next weekend as a ridge of high pressure takes over the Plains. More seasonable temps are in store for this time of the year with highs topping out in the 50s and 60s.
Have a great night!
-Meteorologist T.J. Springer