T.J.’s Forecast: Winter storm on the horizon, big changes tomorrow into early next week

Weather

Our Saturday started off on a cold note but we really did not warm up all that much because of stubborn clouds.

Where they did erode, highs were able to climb into the 50s and 60s. Overnight, temps will be much colder in Northwestern Kansas as winds take back over from the north. Expect lows in the 20s there compared to the upper 30s in the metro.

As this low organizes it will have colder air spilling in from the north, and with this temperature gradient, it will become a more potent system. With the colder air in play, we will have a winter storm on our hands. The southern half of the state will start out milder tomorrow compared to our northern neighborhoods so we will have a chilly rain on our hands.

Highs will be in the lower 40s compared to the 20s/30s west.

Northern Kansas is still standing the best chance for some accumulating snow.

Precipitation will likely remain all snow for you with moderate accumulations likely. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for these areas.

Winter weather is looking more likely Sunday night into Monday for Central Kansas as colder air works in.

Depending on how quickly the colder air works and the exact track of the system plays a role in how much snow/wintry precipitation we will see. Minor accumulations are looking more likely in the Wichita Metro but we are going to be riding a fine line.

Warmer air aloft will change some of the precipitation just to our southeast over to a wintry mix or possibly freezing rain. Depending on how long this happens and what type of wintry precipitation we do see will drastically impact our snowfall.

As it looks now, most of the state is going to pick up on snowfall accumulation. 3-5″ on the table for the northern and western half of the state with 1-3″ for the southern half, including Wichita. The farther southeast you travel, the less snow you will see on the order of a Trace-1″.

Accumulations will be minimal in the far southeastern reaches of the viewing area. This is something we will be watching closely. Windy conditions will accompany this system with blustery conditions likely Sunday and Monday. Gusts could top out near 30-40 mph. Highs will struggle to make it to freezing both Monday and Tuesday. Dynamics wise, this system could slow down depending on the placement of high pressure to our northeast.

We will also need to watch the trailing upper-level energy with this system because it keeps the potential for wintry weather around into Tuesday. This moisture will likely favor Southern Kansas.

Temps will hold in the 30s and 40s likely through the middle of next week as Arctic air seeps southward into the Plains. By Wednesday, conditions remain unsettled as the upper-level energy from this system finally kicks eastward. This will bring another round of potentially wintry weather but many of us will see just plain rain thanks to warmer temps.

Have a great night!

-Meteorologist T.J. Springer

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