One system is departing and the next one is getting served up momentarily. The high pressure system overhead that gave us a nicely normal November day and plenty of sunshine is quickly racing to the east.
While skies are mostly clear, it will not last long before our next storm system arrives later tonight. Sprinkles and light rain showers will track from west to east on Monday. Amounts look light.
Stronger winds will approach western Kansas tonight. Gusts overnight could reach 45 MPH. The axis of these stronger winds will work eastward Monday and Tuesday, with gusts continuing to range from 35 to 45 MPH. During the timeframe of this next storm system, a wind gust above 50 MPH is not out of the question outside of a strong to severe thunderstorm.
Our chance for rain will rise Monday night and through Tuesday as the main portion of the storm system tracks through Kansas.
A strong to severe storm is possible in portions of southcentral into eastern Kansas with hail/gusty winds Tuesday afternoon/evening. Our air temps will be in the 40s and 50s with isolated 60s to the west. This does not sound that warm, but the dynamics of this system could lead to an isolated severe risk. The Storm Prediction Center has pinpointed southcentral and southeastern Kansas in a Marginal Risk for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Overall rainfall amounts with this next storm system will be up to 0.3″ with locally higher amounts possible. The system may gel to produce even higher amounts just northeast of our viewing area.
As colder air sweeps in, rain will switch to snow for our northwest communities by Tuesday evening. Right now, snowfall amounts look light from a trace to an inch. An isolated spot could reach up to 2″ of snow.
Winds will start to drop by Wednesday as sunshine returns. It will be a pleasant and mild Thanksgiving. Highs Wednesday and Thanksgiving will be in the 50s and 60s across Kansas. Another storm is on deck by Friday, but right now the majority of the moisture looks to affect southeastern towns outside of our viewing area.
-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman