A surface low is lifting to the northeast and will move through Kansas overnight. Storms will track to the east/northeast ahead of the cold front with a wintry mix of sleet and snow behind it.
The most unstable air will be near and south of the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. Southern Kansas is under a Marginal Risk for severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds whereas Oklahoma is under a Slight Risk.
A few of our Oklahoma counties have been under a Severe T-Storm Watch until 9 PM. As soon as the storms move through, counties are being lifted from the west to the east. There is a window for an isolated tornado in Oklahoma through early evening.
Snow has not been that organized yet. But, as colder air crashes behind the cold front tonight, any moisture will transition to a brief wintry mix to all snow. By dawn on Wednesday, this storm is history.
Rainfall amounts could exceed 1″ in some cases through Wednesday morning. Snowfall will be west of I-135 with a trace to upwards of 2″ possible. Most will be on the lower end of that scale but a city or two could get that high given the dynamics of this system and how it times out with the arrival of the cold air.
Winds will gust to 45 MPH through tonight and weaken Wednesday. We will get a few days of lighter breezes before a strong cold front comes in on Sunday, ushering in more gusts to 45 MPH.
Once today’s system passes through Wednesday, we will have gorgeous weather for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Temps across Kansas will be seasonable in the 50s to lower 60s.
A couple of models are pushing for a weekend storm, Saturday night into Sunday, that will impact southern Kansas as mostly rain with some snow to the southwest. As the cold front sweeps through Sunday, anticipate a return to highs in the 40s next week with lows in the teens and 20s.
-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman