With the exception of the rowdy winds, it has been a quiet and warm start to the work week. Clouds are currently streaming from the west to the east. We will see more cloud cover heading into Tuesday.
Because of these clouds and a front locked to the north of us, overnight temperatures will be mild. While the air is drier in northern Kansas, temps there will be the coolest in the lower 40s with widespread 50s to the south.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm could pop up Tuesday afternoon as the cold front enters northern Kansas. There should be a stout lid on the atmosphere that will suppress thunderstorm develop until tomorrow night.
Best forcing associated with any nocturnal thunderstorms will be across northern Kansas Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. There is a 10% chance for one to sprout in the southern half of the state.
The cold front advances on Wednesday. Areas mostly along and east of the Turnpike are under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The atmosphere will be unstable during the afternoon and evening. However, deeply rooted moisture is lacking as this front tracks southeast to enhance severe storm development. That said, we still have the potential to have one or two strong to severe thunderstorms capable of larger hail and brief, damaging winds. While the tornado threat isn’t zero here in Kansas, there is a greater chance for our friends to the south in southern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas.
Once the front passes, temps will drop. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s. There could be a leftover shower or two, but overall we’ll be on a drying trend through the rest of the work week and into part of the weekend.
Temperatures surge warmer over the weekend in the 70s and 80s. Another storm system wants to work into the Plains by Easter Sunday and could linger into next Monday where scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
-Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman