The start of November will not feel like it. Temperatures will not be too chilly this morning and highs will warm well above the norm into the 70s.
A stronger southerly breeze will help give our temperatures this unseasonable boost. With more wind, warmth, and dry conditions, there will also be a rise in fire danger to the west today.
As our next system approaches, winds will still be gusty and will turn even stronger through mid-week. We will need to continue to monitor fire concerns tomorrow and possibly through Thursday too.
The next front is already in sight. High pressure will slowly slide across the Plains and then gradually breakdown to be replaced by more clouds and a chance of rain.
There will also be a drop in temperatures. It will feel more like November as we drop to the 50s and 60s by Friday.
Clouds increase Thursday but conditions should stay dry during the day. During the evening is when we will begin to see showers and storms develop along and ahead of the front.
It is very important that we stay weather aware because there is a risk of a few strong to severe storms. We will need to monitor the initial batch of showers and storms closely between Thursday evening and early Friday morning.
Latest model guidance has shifted the heaviest rain farther east late Friday through Saturday. At this point, the farther east you are the better chance you have of seeing as much as several inches of rain. Conditions will not be as damp farther west.
Storm strength and severity will also need to continue to be monitored. So far, a severe risk for Friday includes portions of South Central Kansas and Northern Oklahoma.
Rain and rumbles will be around through Saturday with lower rain chances remaining to the west. Sunday will be drier and temperatures will start to rebound.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Meteorologist Ronelle Williams:
Today: Mostly sunny, breezy. Hi: 77 Wind: S 10-20
Tonight: Mostly clear, breezy. Lo: 54 Wind: S 10-20
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, windy. Hi: 75 Wind: S 15-25
Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy, windy. Lo: 57 Wind: S 10-25
Thu: Hi: 75 Lo: 58 Mostly cloudy, windy.
Fri: Hi: 65 Lo: 46 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 80% chance of showers and storms.
Sat: Hi: 58 Lo: 44 Mostly cloudy, breezy. 60% chance of showers and storms.
Sun: Hi: 65 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.
Mon: Hi: 70 Lo: 48 Partly cloudy, windy.
Tue: Hi: 68 Lo: 44 Partly cloudy, windy.