The fall season is well underway, and we are inching closer to the cold season in a little more than a month and a half. In October, we faced a few rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall. We had back-to-back weeks where tornadoes were reported in the Sunflower State in October! Still, many parts of Kansas could use more moisture. Here is a look at our deficit over the last 30 days that greatly favors areas west and south for more moisture.
Central and eastern Kansas, along with a tiny sliver in southwest Kansas, benefited the most over the last 30 days.
In all, the drought remains the worst to the northwest and near the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. We also have a dry max over northcentral Kansas.
This is a snapshot of rainfall in October, taken at 7 p.m. on Halloween night. Wichita and Dodge City ended the month above average, with Goodland and Salina below the norm.
We have a limited shot for rain this week. However, a wave that produces rain and snow out west overnight will undergo modification Tuesday, bringing widespread light rain showers.
As this tracks southeast, light rain will favor areas south of I-70 Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be around a quarter of an inch.
If temps can stay cool enough out west, then a few snowflakes may mix in with the rain during the day. Little to no snowfall accumulation is expected.
Seeing as this system lingers into Wednesday, there will be a small window where rain switches over to snow in central and western Kansas before turning to all rain again Wednesday. Rain should move out Wednesday morning.
Definitely nothing that will make a dent in our isolated drought locations. Once this moves away from us, we will set up for another dry stretch where moisture does not look good from the weekend into much of next week.
We are on La Nina watch heading into winter. This means we may end up having a similar winter to the 2020-2021 season which will only enhance the drought in parts of Kansas. I am concerned about the drought worsening to the southwest in the short term. The trajectory of our systems lately leaves a hole in the far southwest corner near Elkhart and Liberal. We will continue to monitor trends closely on-air and online at ksn.com.
–Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman